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How Election Year Affects Real Estate



I've always agreed with the analysts that say the real estate market slows during an election year. If there's one thing that we can all agree on its the suppression in people's confidence in making large purchases and investments during times of uncertainty.


Appraiser Miller Samuel has for the past decade, been observing a pullback in sales in the summer of an election year and then a release in sales after the election into the new year, no matter the party or the candidate. His methodology: The data set was co-op based because they account for 74% of the apartment market and doesn’t have the wild fluctuation of contract versus closing date because of condo new development lags. He doesn't have all the contract dates for co-ops, but for those he does, they have been remarkably consistent at around 90 days. That 90-day average was applied to all the closing dates to reverse-engineer contract dates. Contracts for even and odd years were compared: Even years represented federal election years, including midterms. The results compared federal election years to non-federal election years, finding that beginning in June of an election year, sales were progressively weaker than their non-election year counterpart. The most significant difference occurred in September during an election year with a 12.7% weaker sales market than a non-election year. Beginning in November during an election year, sales overpower their non-election year counterpart, with the release of pent-up demand occurring well into the following spring.









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